INQUIMUS 2019: 26th – 28th November 2019 at UN Campus, Bonn, Germany
Data, methods and tools for dynamic risk assessments: What are requirements, and how to tackle persisting challenges?
Understanding and reducing disaster risk are key priorities in international policy documents and agendas, and the need for improved knowledge and information on drivers, hotspots and dynamics of disaster risk has been repeatedly stressed by scientists, practitioners and policy makers. As a result we have witnessed a sharp increase in the number of risk assessments over the past decades aiming to inform the identification and planning of risk reduction and adaptation options. While the need for integrative, transdisciplinary approaches for understanding and assessing
the inherent complexity and dynamic nature of risk (in all its dimensions of hazard, exposure and vulnerability) has been widely acknowledged, the development and application of methods and tools to better understand and assess that complexity has not kept pace yet. Today, the majority of risk assessments are still based on static (e.g. index-based) approaches and often do not represent the inherent complexities (e.g. feedbacks and coupling, inter-indicator relationships) and space-time dynamics of risk and its components adequately. Dynamic modelling approaches (e.g. agent-based models, Bayesian networks, system dynamics approaches, etc.) offer new opportunities not only for more dynamic risk assessments (e.g. human-environmental interaction, space-time dynamics), but also for simulating the potential effects of human behavior and risk reduction/adaptation options on risk patterns and trends.
The INQUIMUS workshop 2019 aims at:
> Reviewing and discussing the state-of-the art (incl. data, methods and tools) regarding dynamic risk assessments, and the simulation of the effect of risk reduction and adaptation options
> Identifying remaining challenges, and
> Exploring opportunities for future research and transferring established approaches
Drawing on a small number of invited keynote presentations, interactive discussion formats, poster presentations and selected case studies, the INQUIMUS 2019 workshop aims to discuss the following guiding questions:
1. Which types of inherent complexities and space-time dynamics should be considered when assessing risk? How do they vary for the different risk components (hazard, exposure and vulnerability)?
2. How can we simulate the effect of human behavior and potential risk reduction or adaptation options on risk patterns and trends?
3. Which data, methods and tools are needed (and do exist) to represent and capture these dynamics in assessments? How can big data (incl. earth observation) support dynamic assessments?
4. What are major challenges, and what would be potential ways forward?
The result of the workshop will be a joint commentary article in a peer-reviewed journal based on the inputs, group discussions, and post-workshop engagement of the participants.
Confirmed State-of-the-Art Talks:
SOTA 1: Dynamics in hazard & exposure – Sergio Freire, Joint Research Center (JRC)
SOTA 2: Dynamics in vulnerability – Zinta Zommers, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)
SOTA 3: Simulating the effect of human behavior, DRR & adaptation options on risk patterns and trends – Toon Haer, Vrije Universitet Amsterdam (IVM)
Call for Abstracts
Participation is mainly by invitation. However, we would like to provide room for additional participants to share their insights and present their findings. Interested participants should send an abstract (max 400 words), discussing the following issues:
● Motivation for application and relevance to guiding questions listed on the previous page
● Methods for dynamic assessment/simulation of exposure, vulnerability or risk preferably applied by the applicant
● Achievements and challenges
IMPORTANT: EXTENDED DEADLINE: Sunday, September 29, 2019. Please submit your abstract to: firstname.lastname@example.org
Scientific Committee – INQUIMUS
Dr. Michael Hagenlocher (United Nations University, UNU-EHS, Germany) Dr. Zita Sebesvari (United Nations University, UNU-EHS, Germany) Dr. Stefan Kienberger (University of Salzburg, Z_GIS, Austria) Dr. Stefan Schneiderbauer (Eurac research, Italy) Dr. Marc Zebisch (Eurac research, Italy) Dr. Silvia Torresan (University Ca’ Foscari Venice & Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, Italy) Dr. Andrea Critto (University Ca’ Foscari Venice & Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, Italy)
Tuesday 26 November (evening) until Thursday 28 November (late afternoon) 2019
Location and Venue
United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS),
UN Campus, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, Germany
Dr. Michael Hagenlocher
Dr. Zita Sebesvari
United Nations University
Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
UN Campus, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1
53113 Bonn, Germany